PMFORUM Breaking News
Breaking News in the Project Management World
Monday, January 14, 2008
Global Bank Group sees Economic Rebound + Strong Year for Emerging Markets
According to a new report, a group of the world's leading commercial and investment banks does not foresee a recession in the US and predicts that private investment in emerging markets will remain strong in 2008. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) expects the volume of net private capital flows to emerging markets in 2008 to reach $670 billion, which represents only a modest dip in capital compared to the record $681 billion reached in 2007. The IIF estimates that the volume of net private capital flows to emerging markets in 2006 totaled $560 billion.
Xinhua noted that "...Economic activity in the US in the next few months will be quite weak, with growth expected to average below one percent in the first half of the year, said the report titled 2008 global economic and capital market forecasts. As the year progresses, however, the IIF, a leading global association of financial institutions, expects a recovery in the US, with average growth in excess of 3 percent in the second half of 2008.
According to the report, growth in the leading industrial economies is projected at 2.1 percent this year, down from 2.4 percent in 2007, while growth in emerging market economies is projected at 6.9 percent, following 7.3 percent last year. The US economy is expected to rise by 2.1 percent this year after expanding by 2.9 percent in 2007, said the report." [Xinhua/Factiva]
AFP added that "...The organization, which groups 370 financial businesses in 65 countries, estimated US GDP growth of 2.3 percent this year, sharply higher than most forecasts currently circulating from other sources. ...
The IIF also highlighted an expected increase in inflationary risks, particularly in the second half, under surging commodities prices. In addition, the central banks, particularly the Fed, are seen as ending a spate of credit easing. ..." [Agence France Presse/Factiva]
FT reports that "...The IIF expected 'painfully little' progress in reducing global economic imbalances in 2008. It expected that oil prices would ease to $75 a barrel from their current trading range in the $90s, but would remain high by historic standards, sustaining the boom in oil exporting countries. The moderation in oil prices and increased food supply should reduce overall inflation, it argued. It says the world's big central banks will change roles mid-year 'from insurance agent to inflation hawk'. ..." [The Financial Times (UK)]
Source: World Bank Press Review, January 11, 2008
According to the report, growth in the leading industrial economies is projected at 2.1 percent this year, down from 2.4 percent in 2007, while growth in emerging market economies is projected at 6.9 percent, following 7.3 percent last year. The US economy is expected to rise by 2.1 percent this year after expanding by 2.9 percent in 2007, said the report." [Xinhua/Factiva]
AFP added that "...The organization, which groups 370 financial businesses in 65 countries, estimated US GDP growth of 2.3 percent this year, sharply higher than most forecasts currently circulating from other sources. ...
The IIF also highlighted an expected increase in inflationary risks, particularly in the second half, under surging commodities prices. In addition, the central banks, particularly the Fed, are seen as ending a spate of credit easing. ..." [Agence France Presse/Factiva]
FT reports that "...The IIF expected 'painfully little' progress in reducing global economic imbalances in 2008. It expected that oil prices would ease to $75 a barrel from their current trading range in the $90s, but would remain high by historic standards, sustaining the boom in oil exporting countries. The moderation in oil prices and increased food supply should reduce overall inflation, it argued. It says the world's big central banks will change roles mid-year 'from insurance agent to inflation hawk'. ..." [The Financial Times (UK)]
Source: World Bank Press Review, January 11, 2008
