NEW YORK, NY - September 02, 2010
-- A new United Nations study says that exports from Latin America and
the Caribbean will grow by 21.4 per cent this year, owing mainly to
purchases from Asia - particularly China - and the normalization of
United States demand.
According to the study, "Latin America and
the Caribbean in the World Economy 2009-2010: A crisis generated in the
centre and a recovery driven by the emerging economies," the expected
rise in 2010 follows a 22.6 per cent decline in 2009, making the
increase even more pronounced. The increase is driven mainly by South
American sales of prime materials.
Produced by the UN Economic
Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
(
ECLAC),
the report indicates, for example, that regional exports to China rose
from -2.2 per cent in the first semester of 2009 to 44.8 per cent
during the same period this year. However, there are significant
differences within the region.
Growth has been much greater in
countries that export natural resources, such as agricultural,
livestock and mining products - namely, South American nations, the
study shows. It has been slower in countries that import basic
commodities and depend on tourism and remittances, such as the Central
American and the Caribbean economies.
The differences between subregions are also significant.
According
to ECLAC estimates, exports from Mercosur countries (South America's
"Southern Common Market") are expected to increase 23.4 per cent this
year and those from Andean nations by 29.5 per cent.
By
contrast, sales from the Central American Common Market will expand
only 10.8 per cent. Exports from Mexico, for example, are expected to
rise by 16 per cent, and from Panama 10.1 per cent, while sales from
Chile should see growth of 32.6 per cent.
The most notable
upswing from the worst period of the crisis in 2009 is expected in the
Caribbean Community (CARICOM), whose exports are estimated to leap from
-43.6 per cent in 2009 to 23.7 per cent in 2010.
The report also
examines trade developments in the region over the past decade,
concluding that export growth during those ten years was slower than in
the 1990s and lower than in other developing regions, both in value and
volume. However, the region took two different routes during that time:
South America doubled export growth, while in Mexico and Central
America it dropped by over 50 per cent.
This disparity is
largely due to the fact that the exports that most increased were
natural resources from South America, at the expense of manufactured
products and services with varying degrees of technological content.
According to the report, the subregion has reverted to an export
structure based on prime materials similar to that of 20 years ago.
While
in 1999 natural resources made up 26.7 per cent of total exports from
the region, in 2009 they composed 38.8 per cent of the total.
The
difference in the growth rates of natural resource exports and
manufactured goods realigned the relative weight of Mexico's exports,
on the one hand, and sales from South America, on the other.
The
participation of Mexico in the region's total exports fell from 40 per
cent in 2000 to 30 per cent in 2009, while Brazil increased its
participation from 13 per cent to nearly 20 per cent during the same
period. Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru also expanded their
participation in total exports based on the sale of natural resources.
The
region has been unable to improve the quality of its international
insertion, and the expansion of natural resource-related sectors does
not seem to have contributed sufficiently to the creation of new
technological capacities, states the report.
"The
diversification of exports, a strong boost to competitiveness and
innovation, and greater regional cooperation will allow Latin America
and the Caribbean to improve the quality of its insertion in the global
economy, close productivity gaps, and capitalize the opportunities of
international trade in order to grow with more equality," said ECLAC
Executive Secretary Alicia Bárcena during the launching of the report
at the Commission's headquarters in Santiago, Chile.